tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:51 am at Greensboro)
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4251 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history → GSO 06:00 IAD 07:18 5% 1% 0.7% 91%
UA 4819 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history → GSO 14:58 IAD 16:37 10% 3% 0.9% 75%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GSO 05:25 → ATL 06:38DL 3018 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 07:43 → IAD 09:26DL 1324 4h 01m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → GSO 06:35 → ATL 07:56DL 3004 1h 54m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444 5h 02m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → GSO 08:14 → ATL 09:37DL 1085 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAD 14:21DL 1922 6h 07m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → GSO 10:14 → ATL 11:31DL 3173 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 15:29 → IAD 17:24DL 1554 7h 10m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → GSO 11:53 → ATL 13:22DL 3052 1h 37m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 4h 53m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → GSO 11:21 → DTW 13:02DL 4966 · flown by Endeavor 2h 06m Detroit DTW 15:08 → IAD 16:41DL 1787 5h 20m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → GSO 14:59 → ATL 16:20DL 3060 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309 4h 55m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → GSO 07:06 → DFW 09:03AA 2846 1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:13 → IAD 14:08AA 524 7h 02m 94% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON