Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4419 GSO 08:44 → LGA 10:30 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 4574 GSO 17:49 → LGA 19:41 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4419 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GSO 08:44	LGA 10:30	7%	3%	0.7%	82%
YX 5781 Republic	GSO 10:29	LGA 12:16	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 4574 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GSO 17:49	LGA 19:41	13%	7%	0.8%	63%
DL 5292 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 06:00	LGA 07:40	14%	8%	6.2%	86%
DL 5125 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 10:00	LGA 11:36	15%	8%	5.4%	85%
DL 5439 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 18:32	LGA 20:20	53%	30%	30.2%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON