Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3673 GSO 07:20 → ORD 08:32 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 4118 GSO 18:33 → ORD 19:33 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3673 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 07:20	ORD 08:32	7%	3%	0.6%	89%
AA 4144 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 11:47	ORD 13:00	9%	3%	0.6%	83%
G7 4437 GoJet	GSO 06:28	ORD 07:27	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
G7 4193 GoJet	GSO 10:50	ORD 11:54	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
G7 4387 GoJet	GSO 18:18	ORD 19:16	16%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 4118 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 18:33	ORD 19:33	16%	6%	0.6%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON