Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 3–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3028 GSP 05:44 → ATL 06:43 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest DL 3010 GSP 16:52 → ATL 18:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3028 Delta Flight history →	GSP 05:44	ATL 06:43	3%	2%	0.7%	98%
DL 1146 Delta Flight history →	GSP 06:45	ATL 07:48	5%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 2158 Delta Flight history →	GSP 11:42	ATL 12:45	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 3089 Delta Flight history →	GSP 10:03	ATL 11:04	6%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 1725 Delta Flight history →	GSP 13:09	ATL 14:14	6%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 1619 Delta Flight history →	GSP 08:52	ATL 09:58	7%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 3010 Delta Flight history →	GSP 16:52	ATL 18:00	7%	3%	0.6%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON