Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 10:03, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 2864 United	GSP 16:21	DEN 17:50	12%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Greenville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GSP 05:44 → ATL 06:43DL 3028	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995	7h 21m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	GSP 07:10 → DTW 08:57DL 876	3h 45m Detroit	DTW 12:42 → DEN 13:45DL 1648	8h 35m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	GSP 08:52 → ATL 09:58DL 1619	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	7h 08m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	GSP 10:03 → ATL 11:04DL 3089	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → DEN 14:58DL 530	6h 55m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	GSP 16:59 → ATL 18:06DL 3010	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 21:10 → DEN 22:22DL 493	7h 23m	99%	86%
American Details →	GSP 10:10 → CLT 11:08AA 6119 · flown by Piedmont	1h 37m Charlotte	CLT 12:45 → DEN 14:13AA 2174	6h 03m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	GSP 11:42 → ATL 12:45DL 2158	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 16:43 → DEN 17:56DL 519	8h 14m	100%	84%
United Details →	GSP 17:43 → ORD 19:00UA 5524 · flown by SkyWest	3h 02m Chicago	ORD 22:02 → DEN 23:33UA 767	7h 50m	98%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON