Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3986 GSP 13:40 → DFW 15:22 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 1805 GSP 19:38 → DFW 21:03 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3986 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSP 13:40	DFW 15:22	9%	2%	0.7%	81%
AA 1254 American Flight history →	GSP 07:01	DFW 08:44	11%	4%	0.9%	81%
AA 1805 American Flight history →	GSP 19:38	DFW 21:03	15%	5%	0.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON