Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 876 GSP 07:10 → DTW 08:57 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 5090 GSP 18:42 → DTW 20:30 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 876 Delta Flight history →	GSP 07:10	DTW 08:57	6%	3%	0.6%	93%
9E 5378 Endeavor	GSP 11:05	DTW 12:51	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
9E 5354 Endeavor	GSP 11:15	DTW 13:00	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 5090 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	GSP 18:42	DTW 20:30	9%	3%	0.8%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON