Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: YX 3444 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–15%.

Safest bet that day YX 3444 GSP 05:58 → EWR 08:17 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 3651 GSP 18:47 → EWR 20:56 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3444 Republic	GSP 05:58	EWR 08:17	3%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 3622 Republic	GSP 11:28	EWR 13:25	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 3651 Republic	GSP 18:47	EWR 20:56	15%	3%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON