Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, AA 3806 at 06:30, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 3806 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSP 06:30	MIA 08:26	8%	3%	0.8%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GSP 05:44 → ATL 06:43DL 3028	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 13m	99%	91%
American Details →	GSP 07:00 → CLT 08:16AA 5654 · flown by PSA	2h 46m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	6h 11m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	GSP 06:45 → ATL 07:48DL 1146	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 17m	99%	89%
American Details →	GSP 06:35 → DCA 08:17AA 5031 · flown by PSA	1h 35m Washington	DCA 09:52 → MIA 13:10AA 401	6h 35m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	GSP 08:52 → ATL 09:58DL 1619	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 13:32 → MIA 15:26DL 1323	6h 34m	99%	84%
American Details →	GSP 07:01 → DFW 08:44AA 1254	1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:20 → MIA 14:29AA 1454	7h 28m	97%	84%
American Details →	GSP 09:04 → CLT 10:25AA 5798 · flown by Piedmont	3h 09m Charlotte	CLT 13:34 → MIA 15:41AA 1198	6h 37m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	GSP 10:03 → ATL 11:04DL 3089	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	6h 52m	99%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	GSP 19:32 → CLT 20:54AA 5870 · flown by Piedmont	53m Charlotte	CLT 21:47 → MIA 23:50AA 3068	4h 18m	63%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON