Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2176 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 2176 GSP 06:19 → ORD 07:22 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4145 GSP 18:27 → ORD 19:28 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2176 United	GSP 06:19	ORD 07:22	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4160 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSP 11:27	ORD 12:23	11%	2%	0.7%	89%
MQ 3689 Envoy	GSP 07:34	ORD 08:33	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4002 Envoy	GSP 13:21	ORD 14:19	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 5524 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GSP 17:43	ORD 19:00	15%	7%	0.7%	61%
AA 4145 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSP 18:27	ORD 19:28	22%	5%	0.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON