Today: WN 1959 at 17:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–22%.

Safest bet today WN 1959 HNL 17:15 → ITO 18:22 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1082 HNL 15:21 → ITO 16:15 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 13 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1959 Southwest	HNL 17:15	ITO 18:22	11%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 1960 Southwest	HNL 20:50	ITO 21:56	12%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 1845 Southwest	HNL 20:44	ITO 21:49	12%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 1844 Southwest	HNL 17:03	ITO 18:08	12%	2%	1.2%	no record
AS 1122 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 19:21	ITO 20:29	15%	3%	1.7%	80%
AS 1132 Alaska	HNL 21:03	ITO 22:11	16%	3%	1.6%	no record
AS 1112 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 18:09	ITO 19:17	16%	3%	1.7%	76%
AS 1102 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 16:55	ITO 18:03	17%	3%	2.0%	74%
AS 1082 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:21	ITO 16:15	22%	3%	2.0%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON