Today: WN 1189 at 20:59 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–22%.

Safest bet today WN 1189 HNL 20:59 → LAS 05:52 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 876 HNL 13:25 → LAS 22:10 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1189 Southwest	HNL 20:59	LAS 05:52	9%	2%	0.3%	no record
WN 1323 Southwest	HNL 21:03	LAS 05:40	10%	2%	0.3%	no record
AS 808 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 23:20	LAS 08:03	15%	4%	0.6%	78%
AS 876 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:25	LAS 22:10	22%	4%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON