Today: DL 658 at 21:30 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–39%.

Safest bet today DL 658 HNL 21:30 → LAX 06:00 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 802 HNL 13:10 → LAX 21:32 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 658 Delta Flight history →	HNL 21:30	LAX 06:00	12%	4%	0.7%	93%
UA 1169 United Flight history →	HNL 21:40	LAX 06:03	14%	4%	1.0%	92%
WN 1550 Southwest	HNL 21:24	LAX 05:44	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1427 Southwest	HNL 21:26	LAX 05:47	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 427 Delta Flight history →	HNL 12:35	LAX 21:00	17%	4%	0.7%	80%
AA 144 American Flight history →	HNL 20:30	LAX 05:02	19%	5%	0.7%	87%
UA 1157 United Flight history →	HNL 13:00	LAX 21:23	20%	4%	1.0%	83%
AA 162 American Flight history →	HNL 14:22	LAX 22:54	23%	4%	0.7%	81%
AA 164 American Flight history →	HNL 15:33	LAX 00:11	24%	4%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
AS 804 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 20:39	LAX 05:00	25%	6%	1.0%	79%
AS 826 Alaska	HNL 11:41	LAX 19:58	30%	6%	1.0%	no record
AS 557 Alaska	HNL 15:22	LAX 23:45	38%	6%	1.0%	no record
AS 802 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:10	LAX 21:32	39%	7%	1.0%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 12:03 → KOA 13:04AS 1108	1h 15m Kailua/Kona	KOA 14:19 → LAX 22:33AS 561	7h 30m	91%	74%
Alaska Details →	HNL 12:31 → OGG 13:15AS 1106	1h 45m Kahului	OGG 15:00 → LAX 23:07AS 934	7h 36m	97%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON