Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 21–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 961 HNL 22:42 → PDX 06:57 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 814 HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 961 Alaska	HNL 22:42	PDX 06:57	21%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 879 Alaska	HNL 21:43	PDX 06:11	24%	4%	1.2%	no record
AS 814 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:22	PDX 20:50	27%	5%	1.0%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 19:34 → OGG 20:24AS 1216	1h 28m Kahului	OGG 21:52 → PDX 06:22 +1AS 558	7h 48m	92%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON