Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 20–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 1880 HNL 21:54 → SAN 06:23 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 816 HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1880 Southwest	HNL 21:54	SAN 06:23	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1991 Southwest	HNL 21:58	SAN 06:19	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 93 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 22:01	SAN 06:35	20%	5%	1.6%	89%
AS 816 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:39	SAN 21:07	29%	5%	1.5%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 21:02 → OGG 21:55AS 1206	1h 08m Kahului	OGG 23:03 → SAN 07:20 +1AS 484	7h 18m	92%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON