Today: DL 440 at 22:47 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–51%.

Safest bet today DL 440 HNL 22:47 → SEA 07:36 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 822 HNL 12:50 → SEA 21:34 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 440 Delta Flight history →	HNL 22:47	SEA 07:36	8%	3%	0.7%	94%
DL 359 Delta Flight history →	HNL 13:07	SEA 22:05	19%	4%	0.8%	87%
AS 122 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 21:20	SEA 05:59	31%	7%	1.4%	71%
AS 854 Alaska	HNL 21:31	SEA 06:22	32%	7%	1.4%	no record
AS 900 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 23:20	SEA 08:00	37%	4%	0.7%	73%
AS 267 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:28	SEA 20:25	39%	8%	1.4%	73%worse than usual
AS 627 Alaska	HNL 14:36	SEA 23:32	41%	8%	1.4%	no record
AS 1400 Alaska	HNL 15:06	SEA 23:42	42%	8%	1.6%	no record
AS 822 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:50	SEA 21:34	51%	10%	1.4%	56%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 19:34 → OGG 20:24AS 1216	1h 16m Kahului	OGG 21:40 → SEA 06:17 +1AS 206	7h 43m	90%	70%
Alaska Details →	HNL 13:01 → OGG 13:45AS 1116	1h 30m Kahului	OGG 15:15 → SEA 23:59AS 244	7h 58m	91%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON