Today: DL 2557 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–20%.

Safest bet today DL 2557 HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 2006 HOU 18:33 → ATL 21:36 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2557 Delta Flight history →	HOU 06:00	ATL 09:05	4%	2%	0.1%	90%
WN 1414 Southwest	HOU 08:23	ATL 11:27	8%	1%	0.1%	no record
DL 1509 Delta Flight history →	HOU 11:08	ATL 14:11	10%	2%	0.1%	88%
DL 2381 Delta Flight history →	HOU 17:17	ATL 20:32	11%	3%	0.6%	77%
DL 1195 Delta Flight history →	HOU 15:07	ATL 18:09	12%	3%	0.6%	80%
WN 572 Southwest	HOU 10:58	ATL 14:02	15%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 1888 Southwest	HOU 11:27	ATL 14:40	16%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 2217 Southwest	HOU 18:38	ATL 21:48	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1700 Southwest	HOU 14:36	ATL 17:48	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 309 Southwest	HOU 14:58	ATL 18:02	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2006 Southwest	HOU 18:33	ATL 21:36	20%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON