Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 433 HOU 10:58 → AUS 11:57 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1229 HOU 20:42 → AUS 21:38 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 433 Southwest	HOU 10:58	AUS 11:57	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1891 Southwest	HOU 11:16	AUS 12:12	10%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4919 Southwest	HOU 16:42	AUS 17:35	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 369 Southwest	HOU 14:53	AUS 15:52	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1556 Southwest	HOU 20:48	AUS 21:47	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1229 Southwest	HOU 20:42	AUS 21:38	17%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON