Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 580 at 14:58, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 580 Southwest	HOU 14:58	BHM 16:44	15%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	5h 10m	99%	91%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:00 → DAL 07:05WN 1636	2h 00m Dallas	DAL 09:05 → BHM 10:54WN 4826	4h 54m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → BHM 16:22DL 2484	5h 42m	99%	88%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:00 → DAL 08:10WN 4	1h 23m Dallas	DAL 09:33 → BHM 11:20WN 3256	4h 20m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:16 → ATL 17:23DL 1195	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 21:18 → BHM 21:21DL 2257	7h 05m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 23:05 → BHM 23:02DL 2034	5h 45m	97%	87%
American Details →	HOU 09:56 → DFW 11:19AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:04 → BHM 14:56AA 3884 · flown by Envoy	5h 00m	95%	84%
Southwest Details →	HOU 16:23 → DAL 17:26WN 42	3h 17m Dallas	DAL 20:43 → BHM 22:27WN 4029	6h 04m	99%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON