Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 259 HOU 08:35 → BNA 10:36 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1898 HOU 18:31 → BNA 20:30 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 259 Southwest	HOU 08:35	BNA 10:36	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1897 Southwest	HOU 10:01	BNA 11:59	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1896 Southwest	HOU 13:17	BNA 15:18	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 143 Southwest	HOU 15:47	BNA 17:45	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1898 Southwest	HOU 18:31	BNA 20:30	10%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON