Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1636 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 1636 HOU 06:00 → DAL 07:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 32 HOU 14:00 → DAL 15:10 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1636 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 06:00	DAL 07:05	5%	1%	0.9%	95%
WN 4 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:00	DAL 08:10	5%	1%	0.9%	94%
WN 10 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 08:30	DAL 09:40	7%	1%	0.9%	97%
WN 14 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 09:30	DAL 10:35	8%	1%	0.9%	88%
WN 20 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 11:00	DAL 12:10	10%	1%	0.9%	86%
WN 26 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 12:30	DAL 13:40	12%	2%	0.8%	85%
WN 42 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 16:31	DAL 17:45	13%	2%	0.8%	83%
WN 50 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 19:01	DAL 20:01	14%	3%	0.8%	78%
WN 46 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 17:23	DAL 18:33	14%	3%	0.7%	73%
WN 54 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:24	DAL 21:31	14%	2%	0.7%	72%
WN 36 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:59	DAL 16:14	15%	3%	0.8%	77%
WN 38 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 15:30	DAL 16:40	15%	2%	0.8%	70%
WN 32 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:00	DAL 15:10	16%	2%	0.8%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON