Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 3–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1913 HOU 06:40 → DEN 08:08 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1917 HOU 15:33 → DEN 17:01 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1913 Southwest	HOU 06:40	DEN 08:08	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4460 Southwest	HOU 10:58	DEN 12:21	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 102 Southwest	HOU 09:19	DEN 10:46	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 614 Southwest	HOU 20:19	DEN 21:47	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1916 Southwest	HOU 18:59	DEN 20:24	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1917 Southwest	HOU 15:33	DEN 17:01	9%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON