Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 3729 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–21%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3729 HOU 06:07 → DFW 07:43 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 6413 HOU 14:02 → DFW 15:25 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3729 Envoy	HOU 06:07	DFW 07:43	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3931 Envoy	HOU 06:06	DFW 07:37	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 4036 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HOU 09:57	DFW 11:20	10%	3%	0.7%	94%
MQ 4127 Envoy	HOU 14:14	DFW 15:37	18%	3%	0.8%	no record
OO 4924 SkyWest	HOU 11:36	DFW 13:00	19%	9%	0.8%	no record
MQ 4222 Envoy	HOU 18:36	DFW 19:59	19%	3%	0.8%	no record
MQ 4015 Envoy	HOU 16:06	DFW 17:29	19%	3%	0.8%	no record
OO 6458 SkyWest	HOU 11:46	DFW 13:07	20%	9%	0.8%	no record
MQ 4126 Envoy	HOU 17:06	DFW 18:20	21%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 6413 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	HOU 14:02	DFW 15:25	25%	10%	0.9%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON