tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1923 Southwest HOU 09:24 ELP 10:22 7% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1925 Southwest HOU 20:30 ELP 21:27 16% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → HOU 06:00 → DAL 07:05WN 1636 1h 51m Dallas DAL 08:56 → ELP 09:42WN 4531 4h 42m 99% 95%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 09:30 → DAL 10:35WN 14 2h 43m Dallas DAL 13:18 → ELP 14:05WN 4039 5h 35m 99% 91%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 12:30 → DAL 13:40WN 26 3h 28m Dallas DAL 17:08 → ELP 17:54WN 1100 6h 24m 100% 89%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 16:23 → DAL 17:26WN 42 3h 05m Dallas DAL 20:31 → ELP 21:19WN 1279 5h 56m 99% 89%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 11:00 → DAL 12:10WN 20 2h 35m Dallas DAL 14:45 → ELP 15:34WN 2025 5h 34m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → HOU 09:31 → DFW 10:55AA 4036 · flown by Envoy 3h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:41 → ELP 15:36AA 1681 7h 05m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → HOU 14:16 → ATL 17:23DL 1195 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 19:39 → ELP 20:50DL 1713 7h 34m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → HOU 14:02 → DFW 15:25AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest 3h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:41 → ELP 19:34AA 555 6h 32m 94% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON