Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:24 am at Houston)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 15:07, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 15:07 → ATL 18:09DL 1195	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 21:42 → EWR 23:52DL 2527	7h 45m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → EWR 00:52 +1DL 2552	6h 35m	97%	78%
American Details →	HOU 09:56 → DFW 11:20AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	3h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:57 → EWR 19:39AA 2861	8h 43m	100%	73%
Delta Details →	HOU 11:08 → ATL 14:11DL 1509	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:53DL 2340	5h 45m	94%	72%
American Details →	HOU 14:05 → DFW 15:28AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	2h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:25 → EWR 22:58AA 618	7h 53m	93%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON