Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 1724 at 18:16, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1724 Southwest	HOU 18:16	IND 21:41	13%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013	5h 36m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 15:55 → IND 17:35DL 2979	5h 55m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657	6h 24m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:16 → ATL 17:23DL 1195	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 20:51 → IND 22:27DL 1482	7h 11m	98%	88%
American Details →	HOU 09:31 → DFW 10:55AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:11 → IND 16:30AA 1450	5h 59m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	HOU 12:30 → DAL 13:40WN 26	3h 45m Dallas	DAL 17:25 → IND 20:31WN 4917	7h 01m	100%	84%
American Details →	HOU 14:02 → DFW 15:25AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	3h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:54 → IND 22:18AA 2784	7h 16m	94%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON