Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Jacksonville on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 12:37 → JAX 13:45DL 3024	6h 45m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → JAX 00:09 +1DL 2276	5h 52m	97%	81%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:00 → DAL 08:10WN 4	3h 55m Dallas	DAL 12:05 → JAX 15:27WN 2564	7h 27m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → JAX 16:35DL 2720	4h 55m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:16 → ATL 17:23DL 1195	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 20:52 → JAX 22:06DL 2189	6h 50m	98%	75%
Southwest Details →	HOU 09:30 → DAL 10:35WN 14	3h 57m Dallas	DAL 14:32 → JAX 17:50WN 4845	7h 20m	99%	74%
American Details →	HOU 09:56 → DFW 11:19AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	1h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:50 → JAX 16:21AA 1472	5h 25m	89%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON