Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	6h 20m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 22:34 → JFK 00:46 +1DL 1632	6h 29m	96%	87%
American Details →	HOU 09:31 → DFW 10:55AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:09 → JFK 17:43AA 1058	7h 12m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:16 → ATL 17:23DL 1195	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 19:28 → JFK 21:40DL 2378	6h 24m	96%	84%
American Details →	HOU 14:02 → DFW 15:25AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	3h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:10 → JFK 00:01 +1AA 1248	8h 59m	94%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON