Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2054 at 06:08 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 2054 HOU 06:08 → LAS 07:22 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2058 HOU 14:34 → LAS 15:49 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2054 Southwest	HOU 06:08	LAS 07:22	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3775 Southwest	HOU 06:50	LAS 08:02	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 358 Southwest	HOU 08:45	LAS 10:00	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1938 Southwest	HOU 09:18	LAS 10:28	11%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 873 Southwest	HOU 17:34	LAS 19:00	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1936 Southwest	HOU 12:54	LAS 14:01	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 188 Southwest	HOU 11:55	LAS 13:10	16%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1940 Southwest	HOU 20:41	LAS 21:50	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2058 Southwest	HOU 14:34	LAS 15:49	19%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON