Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 2445 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 2445 HOU 07:05 → LGA 11:31 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1948 HOU 16:48 → LGA 21:20 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2445 Southwest	HOU 07:05	LGA 11:31	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2041 Southwest	HOU 11:46	LGA 16:21	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1773 Southwest	HOU 14:42	LGA 19:17	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1948 Southwest	HOU 16:48	LGA 21:20	22%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON