Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2655 HOU 10:08 → MAF 11:31 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1408 HOU 15:06 → MAF 16:36 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2655 Southwest	HOU 10:08	MAF 11:31	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2696 Southwest	HOU 12:35	MAF 14:09	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4420 Southwest	HOU 20:27	MAF 21:53	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1408 Southwest	HOU 15:06	MAF 16:36	15%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON