Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4603 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 4603 HOU 08:45 → MCI 10:49 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2685 HOU 20:32 → MCI 22:27 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4603 Southwest	HOU 08:45	MCI 10:49	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2666 Southwest	HOU 09:47	MCI 11:49	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2076 Southwest	HOU 15:21	MCI 17:25	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2685 Southwest	HOU 20:32	MCI 22:27	18%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON