Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1975 HOU 07:55 → MSY 09:07 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1978 HOU 15:00 → MSY 16:11 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1975 Southwest	HOU 07:55	MSY 09:07	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4958 Southwest	HOU 09:23	MSY 10:37	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4636 Southwest	HOU 19:14	MSY 20:32	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4486 Southwest	HOU 11:19	MSY 12:31	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3587 Southwest	HOU 20:34	MSY 21:48	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1978 Southwest	HOU 15:00	MSY 16:11	11%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON