Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 570 at 20:54, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 570 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:54	ONT 22:21	13%	3%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 07:00 → DAL 08:10WN 4	3h 25m Dallas	DAL 11:35 → ONT 12:48WN 1223	7h 48m	100%	91%
American Details →	HOU 09:31 → DFW 10:55AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	1h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:24 → ONT 13:48AA 2635	6h 17m	92%	82%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:16 → ATL 17:23DL 1195	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 18:55 → ONT 20:41DL 2891	8h 25m	93%	78%
American Details →	HOU 14:02 → DFW 15:25AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	3h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:54 → ONT 20:26AA 2147	8h 24m	94%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON