tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 11:22 → ORD 12:34DL 2894 6h 34m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → HOU 09:31 → DFW 10:55AA 4036 · flown by Envoy 2h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988 6h 20m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 6h 36m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738 6h 32m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → HOU 14:16 → ATL 17:23DL 1195 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 19:39 → ORD 20:38DL 1139 6h 22m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → HOU 14:02 → DFW 15:25AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:27 → ORD 20:54AA 2656 6h 52m 94% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → HOU 09:31 → DFW 10:55AA 4036 · flown by Envoy 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:45 → ORD 14:04AA 1285 4h 33m 72% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON