Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488	5h 42m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 17:18 → RDU 18:54DL 1097	7h 14m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → RDU 00:10 +1DL 2938	5h 53m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:16 → ATL 17:23DL 1195	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 20:25 → RDU 22:00DL 3244	6h 44m	98%	86%
Southwest Details →	HOU 11:00 → DAL 12:10WN 20	3h 06m Dallas	DAL 15:16 → RDU 19:05WN 1353	7h 05m	99%	82%
American Details →	HOU 09:31 → DFW 10:55AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:21 → RDU 16:13AA 2091	5h 42m	92%	79%
American Details →	HOU 14:02 → DFW 15:25AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	1h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:09 → RDU 20:56AA 979	5h 54m	87%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON