Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 17–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4397 HOU 08:48 → SAN 10:02 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2136 HOU 20:48 → SAN 22:04 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4397 Southwest	HOU 08:48	SAN 10:02	17%	2%	0.3%	no record
WN 3474 Southwest	HOU 09:26	SAN 10:49	19%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 4274 Southwest	HOU 13:13	SAN 14:29	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2003 Southwest	HOU 15:21	SAN 16:45	22%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 298 Southwest	HOU 17:28	SAN 18:52	22%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2136 Southwest	HOU 20:48	SAN 22:04	26%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON