Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:40 am at Houston)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Love Field, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Nonstops today


WN 2690 Southwest	HOU 09:41	SEA 12:17	33%	3%	0.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 11:08 → ATL 14:11DL 1509	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	9h 57m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	HOU 15:07 → ATL 18:09DL 1195	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903	10h 52m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:48 → SEA 13:54DL 629	9h 54m	99%	81%
American Details →	HOU 09:57 → DFW 11:20AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	3h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:33 → SEA 16:47AA 727	8h 50m	100%	71%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:00 → DAL 07:05WN 1636	2h 06m Dallas	DAL 09:11 → SEA 11:23WN 519	7h 23m	99%	69%
American Details →	HOU 14:05 → DFW 15:28AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	1h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:21 → SEA 19:30AA 1483	7h 25m	86%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON