Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 12:03 → SFO 13:52DL 672	9h 52m	99%	88%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:00 → DAL 07:05WN 1636	2h 13m Dallas	DAL 09:18 → SFO 11:03WN 4542	7h 03m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 21:55 → SFO 00:04 +1DL 656	8h 47m	94%	84%
American Details →	HOU 09:31 → DFW 10:55AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:11 → SFO 14:52AA 2325	7h 21m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:16 → ATL 17:23DL 1195	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 19:43 → SFO 21:40DL 681	9h 24m	97%	82%
American Details →	HOU 14:02 → DFW 15:25AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	2h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:58 → SFO 19:42AA 2333	7h 40m	91%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON