Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 537 at 09:43, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 537 Southwest	HOU 09:43	SJC 11:48	6%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 14:16 → ATL 17:23DL 1195	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933	10h 33m	98%	89%
Southwest Details →	HOU 08:30 → DAL 09:40WN 10	2h 48m Dallas	DAL 12:28 → SJC 14:09WN 4671	7h 39m	99%	88%
American Details →	HOU 09:31 → DFW 10:55AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:13 → SJC 13:57AA 2834	6h 26m	92%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON