Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 1809 at 10:54, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1809 Southwest	HOU 10:54	SMF 12:51	9%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 06:00 → DAL 07:05WN 1636	2h 27m Dallas	DAL 09:32 → SMF 11:09WN 4053	7h 09m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:16 → ATL 17:23DL 1195	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682	10h 37m	98%	87%
American Details →	HOU 09:31 → DFW 10:55AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:05 → SMF 13:41AA 2078	6h 10m	92%	81%
American Details →	HOU 14:02 → DFW 15:25AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:43 → SMF 18:20AA 651	6h 18m	83%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON