Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: American via DFW, leaving 09:31, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	HOU 09:31 → DFW 10:55AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:14 → SNA 14:38AA 1933	7h 07m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	HOU 09:30 → DAL 10:35WN 14	2h 18m Dallas	DAL 12:53 → SNA 14:07WN 1344	6h 37m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 17:30 → SNA 19:00DL 2012	10h 20m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329	8h 31m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:16 → ATL 17:23DL 1195	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826	10h 09m	98%	83%
American Details →	HOU 14:02 → DFW 15:25AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	3h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:15 → SNA 20:22AA 806	8h 20m	94%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON