Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 23%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1945 at 10:50, 19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1945 HOU 10:50 → TPA 14:10 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2048 HOU 18:40 → TPA 21:52 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Weather 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1945 Southwest	HOU 10:50	TPA 14:10	19%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 2024 Southwest	HOU 11:43	TPA 14:55	24%	3%	1.2%	no record
WN 2048 Southwest	HOU 18:40	TPA 21:52	27%	5%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON