Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 2029 at 15:08, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 2029 Southwest	HOU 15:08	TUL 16:43	11%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 07:00 → DAL 08:10WN 4	2h 11m Dallas	DAL 10:21 → TUL 11:26WN 4939	4h 26m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620	5h 56m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837	7h 24m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	HOU 12:30 → DAL 13:40WN 26	3h 04m Dallas	DAL 16:44 → TUL 17:52WN 1226	5h 22m	99%	85%
Southwest Details →	HOU 16:23 → DAL 17:26WN 42	2h 59m Dallas	DAL 20:25 → TUL 21:32WN 1553	5h 09m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043	6h 02m	95%	83%
American Details →	HOU 09:31 → DFW 10:55AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:14 → TUL 15:29AA 2851	5h 58m	100%	82%
American Details →	HOU 14:02 → DFW 15:25AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	2h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:23 → TUL 19:34AA 531	5h 32m	94%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON