Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:16 am at Houston)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 547 at 13:43, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 547 Southwest	HOU 13:43	VPS 15:23	15%	3%	1.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 10:45 → VPS 11:02DL 2048	5h 02m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	6h 12m	98%	89%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:00 → DAL 07:05WN 1636	2h 39m Dallas	DAL 09:44 → VPS 11:36WN 1481	5h 36m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	HOU 11:08 → ATL 14:11DL 1509	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 15:44 → VPS 16:01DL 2170	4h 53m	94%	84%
American Details →	HOU 14:05 → DFW 15:28AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	3h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:14 → VPS 21:18AA 1201	7h 13m	92%	66%
American Details →	HOU 09:57 → DFW 11:20AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:46 → VPS 14:43AA 2501	4h 46m	86%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON