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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 12 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 537 HOU 09:43 → SJC 11:48 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1202 IAH 19:37 → SFO 21:44 · 15% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 537 Southwest HOU 09:43 SJC 11:48 6% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1981 Southwest HOU 09:31 OAK 11:23 6% 1% 0.6% no record
UA 1845 United IAH 06:28 SFO 08:44 8% 2% 0.6% no record
UA 2744 United Flight history → IAH 08:20 SFO 10:25 9% 2% 0.6% 68%
UA 589 United Flight history → IAH 15:30 SFO 17:35 9% 3% 0.6% 80%
UA 1768 United Flight history → IAH 07:20 SFO 09:25 9% 2% 0.6% 89%
UA 1134 United IAH 17:07 SFO 19:10 11% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 2611 United Flight history → IAH 12:43 SFO 15:01 11% 3% 0.6% 78%
UA 382 United Flight history → IAH 16:25 SFO 18:30 13% 3% 0.6% 73%
UA 2358 United Flight history → IAH 09:35 SFO 11:35 14% 3% 0.6% 74%
UA 2607 United IAH 18:08 SFO 20:25 14% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 1202 United IAH 19:37 SFO 21:44 15% 4% 0.6% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:10 → LAX 08:30DL 1216 57m Los Angeles LAX 09:27 → SJC 10:49DL 1380 5h 39m 93% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON