Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 32 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1636 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1636 HOU 06:00 → DAL 07:05 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest OH 5299 IAH 19:01 → DFW 20:12 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1636 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 06:00	DAL 07:05	2%	1%	0.8%	95%
WN 4 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:00	DAL 08:10	3%	1%	0.8%	94%
WN 10 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 08:30	DAL 09:40	4%	1%	0.8%	97%
AA 2551 American Flight history →	IAH 05:02	DFW 06:19	5%	3%	0.7%	90%
WN 14 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 09:30	DAL 10:35	5%	1%	0.8%	88%
AA 700 American Flight history →	IAH 06:02	DFW 07:28	6%	4%	0.7%	90%
WN 20 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 11:00	DAL 12:10	6%	1%	1.0%	86%
MQ 3729 Envoy	HOU 06:07	DFW 07:43	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 3026 American Flight history →	IAH 06:59	DFW 08:31	8%	5%	0.6%	70%
AA 4036 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HOU 09:31	DFW 10:55	8%	3%	0.7%	94%
WN 32 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:00	DAL 15:10	8%	2%	0.8%	84%
WN 50 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 19:01	DAL 20:01	8%	2%	0.8%	78%
WN 54 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:24	DAL 21:31	8%	2%	0.8%	72%
WN 38 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 15:30	DAL 16:40	8%	2%	0.9%	70%
WN 26 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 12:30	DAL 13:40	8%	1%	0.8%	85%
WN 42 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 16:23	DAL 17:26	8%	2%	0.8%	83%
WN 46 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 17:23	DAL 18:33	8%	2%	0.8%	73%
UA 1183 United Flight history →	IAH 21:45	DFW 23:05	10%	3%	0.6%	62%
AA 3598 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	IAH 08:54	DFW 10:08	11%	2%	0.6%	81%
AA 1407 American Flight history →	IAH 12:13	DFW 13:37	11%	6%	0.6%	86%
AA 2438 American Flight history →	IAH 12:11	DFW 13:31	13%	6%	0.6%	71%
UA 1388 United Flight history →	IAH 14:46	DFW 16:16	13%	5%	0.6%	77%
OO 4924 SkyWest	HOU 11:36	DFW 13:00	13%	6%	0.8%	no record
MQ 4015 Envoy	HOU 16:06	DFW 17:29	14%	3%	0.8%	no record
MQ 4222 Envoy	HOU 18:36	DFW 19:59	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 1949 United Flight history →	IAH 20:13	DFW 21:27	15%	5%	0.6%	71%
AA 1397 American	IAH 14:01	DFW 15:24	15%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1535 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	DFW 19:31	18%	5%	0.6%	71%
UA 1599 United	IAH 16:53	DFW 18:13	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 6413 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	HOU 14:02	DFW 15:25	20%	7%	0.9%	74%
OH 5576 PSA	IAH 16:15	DFW 17:28	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
OH 5299 PSA	IAH 19:01	DFW 20:12	22%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON