Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 21 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 417 IAH 06:04 → LAX 07:42 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 570 HOU 20:54 → ONT 22:21 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 417 United Flight history →	IAH 06:04	LAX 07:42	6%	2%	0.7%	97%
WN 1950 Southwest	HOU 09:37	LGB 11:05	7%	1%	0.7%	no record
UA 2600 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	LAX 08:57	9%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 1216 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:10	LAX 08:30	9%	3%	0.7%	94%
UA 469 United Flight history →	IAH 09:53	LAX 11:30	10%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 1945 United Flight history →	IAH 14:55	LAX 16:39	10%	3%	0.6%	89%
WN 1874 Southwest	HOU 08:40	LAX 10:09	11%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 2460 United Flight history →	IAH 12:33	LAX 14:06	11%	3%	0.6%	87%
OO 4998 SkyWest	IAH 20:19	LAX 22:00	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1743 United Flight history →	IAH 16:31	LAX 18:08	11%	4%	0.6%	82%
UA 483 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	LAX 21:26	12%	5%	0.6%	73%
WN 4965 Southwest	HOU 13:25	ONT 14:50	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 326 United	IAH 20:02	SNA 21:49	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1383 United Flight history →	IAH 09:30	SNA 10:59	13%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 1143 Delta Flight history →	IAH 16:09	LAX 17:30	13%	4%	0.6%	76%
WN 1942 Southwest	HOU 09:33	LAX 11:01	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2658 United Flight history →	IAH 18:49	LAX 20:31	14%	4%	0.6%	82%
F9 1755 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 22:21	LAX 00:12	14%	4%	1.2%	75%
UA 1533 United	IAH 12:23	SNA 13:58	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1943 Southwest	HOU 15:09	LAX 16:38	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 570 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:54	ONT 22:21	16%	4%	0.6%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON