Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 28 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1797 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 1797 IAH 06:01 → EWR 10:36 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 334 IAH 16:15 → LGA 20:59 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1797 United Flight history →	IAH 06:01	EWR 10:36	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
WN 2445 Southwest	HOU 07:05	LGA 11:31	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1886 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	EWR 11:59	7%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 1417 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:00	LGA 11:33	7%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 1697 United Flight history →	IAH 07:00	LGA 11:29	9%	3%	0.5%	87%
UA 1143 United	IAH 07:59	LGA 12:39	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1449 Delta	IAH 11:24	LGA 16:06	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1444 United Flight history →	IAH 19:55	EWR 00:37	11%	3%	0.6%	76%
UA 1340 United Flight history →	IAH 10:57	EWR 15:34	12%	3%	0.6%	73%
UA 1397 United Flight history →	IAH 13:46	EWR 18:30	13%	4%	0.6%	74%
UA 2402 United Flight history →	IAH 09:48	EWR 14:27	13%	3%	0.6%	79%
UA 678 United Flight history →	IAH 09:47	LGA 14:29	14%	3%	0.5%	77%
UA 2371 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	EWR 16:46	14%	3%	0.6%	72%
B6 1382 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 11:55	JFK 16:35	14%	4%	0.7%	50%
UA 2181 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	LGA 16:44	15%	4%	0.5%	66%
WN 2041 Southwest	HOU 11:46	LGA 16:21	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 404 United Flight history →	IAH 18:18	EWR 23:00	16%	4%	0.6%	66%
DL 1438 Delta	IAH 18:31	LGA 23:06	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1368 Delta	IAH 14:00	LGA 18:41	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
B6 282 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 18:17	JFK 23:00	18%	6%	0.8%	45%
UA 2495 United	IAH 17:05	LGA 21:47	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 775 United	IAH 14:39	LGA 19:28	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 700 United Flight history →	IAH 16:47	EWR 21:29	20%	5%	0.6%	64%
UA 2682 United Flight history →	IAH 18:27	LGA 23:03	22%	4%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
WN 1773 Southwest	HOU 14:42	LGA 19:17	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2608 United Flight history →	IAH 14:49	EWR 19:35	22%	5%	0.6%	59%
WN 1948 Southwest	HOU 16:48	LGA 21:20	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 334 United Flight history →	IAH 16:15	LGA 20:59	24%	5%	0.6%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON