Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 3091 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 3091 HOU 06:25 → MCO 09:49 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 987 HOU 14:56 → MCO 18:12 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3091 Southwest	HOU 06:25	MCO 09:49	3%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 154 Southwest	HOU 08:40	MCO 12:09	6%	2%	1.2%	no record
UA 2245 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	MCO 10:51	6%	3%	1.0%	94%
UA 2310 United Flight history →	IAH 09:30	MCO 13:00	12%	3%	1.0%	86%
UA 2662 United Flight history →	IAH 12:25	MCO 16:04	13%	5%	1.8%	86%
WN 1401 Southwest	HOU 11:15	MCO 14:30	13%	3%	1.8%	no record
F9 4978 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 16:13	MCO 19:45	16%	9%	3.2%	66%
UA 2451 United Flight history →	IAH 18:47	MCO 22:25	18%	7%	1.9%	80%
WN 3313 Southwest	HOU 18:27	MCO 21:40	20%	5%	2.1%	no record
F9 1418 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 13:29	MCO 17:06	23%	9%	3.2%	77%
UA 496 United Flight history →	IAH 14:36	MCO 18:14	25%	6%	1.9%	81%
WN 987 Southwest	HOU 14:56	MCO 18:12	30%	7%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON